When Will the Memory Shortage End?

The current memory shortage is more complicated than simply “not enough DRAM.” BuySellRam compared 20 forecasts from memory manufacturers, research firms, financial institutions, and industry analysts, and the estimates for when supply will normalize vary widely.

Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron generally expect tight supply to continue into 2028 or beyond, while some analysts expect memory prices to peak or stabilize during 2027.

One major reason is AI and HBM demand. HBM consumes significantly more wafer capacity per gigabyte than conventional DDR5. As manufacturers allocate more capacity to HBM for AI accelerators, conventional DRAM supply can remain constrained even as total memory production increases.

New fabs should eventually add substantial capacity, but semiconductor manufacturing capacity takes roughly 3–5 years to reach high-volume production. If AI demand remains strong, much of the new capacity could be absorbed quickly.

There are already signs of divergence between memory segments. DDR4 spot prices and some used-memory prices have softened, while server DRAM remains under pressure from cloud and AI infrastructure demand. Spot prices, contract prices, and secondary-market prices therefore need to be viewed separately.

For the server and secondary markets, the key indicators to watch are DRAM contract pricing, DDR4/DDR5 spot prices, HBM production, hyperscaler AI capex, memory inventories, and the ramp-up of new fabs.

For companies holding surplus inventory, changing market conditions also make it worth reassessing the value of existing hardware and considering whether to Sell Memory or Sell Server RAM.

Full analysis: When Will the Memory Shortage End? 20 Forecasts Compared